[VIDEO] Get your global macro fix here: Saxo Strategist and Rivkin CEO discuss the global economy


In this video, Rivkin CEO Scott Schuberg interviews Kay Van-Petersen, Asian Macro Strategist at Saxo Bank. Scott and Kay discuss some of today’s key themes, including US dollar strength, Europe’s depressing economic outlook and why funding your currency trades in yen and euro might be a good idea.

Following the interview Kay gave a talk to Rivkin Investment Team members and offered the additional insights. Kay believes:

  • the US Federal Reserve will lift rates higher before the Reserve Bank of Australia will, likely being second half of 2015 if not 2016, depending on US data
  • the Australian housing rally has more to come
  • the trend of Chinese mainlanders storing value in secure assets outside of China is in its infancy. He feels that, should a financial or regulatory shock hit China, the process of Chinese extracting wealth from China and storing it more reliable assets would greatly accelerate
  • New Zealand should really be cutting rates but the RBNZ is probably too ashamed to, having just aggressively hiked – next move there may be down
  • the greatest potential for a swift move in Europe, for traders, would be the event that the ECB cannot carry out its aggressive stimulus program due to a political coalition between EU members who are opposed to it blocking the measures – this would be a catalyst for widening peripheral spreads (Portuguese, Italian, Spanish, Greek sovereign bonds) and a general repricing of risk that discounts the ECB’s ability to aggressively purchase assets and drive down yields.
Please feel free to give us your own economic observations and get involved in the conversation by using the comments section below.
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