ASX 200 leading the world in monthly performance, oil and US stocks higher, ASX futures up 14 points

Despite what feels to have been a punishing January, the ASX 200 is performing well on a relative basis, both globally and regionally. The ASX 200's one-month performance is -4.44%, less than half the fall of its closest regional peer (Japan's Nikkei at -10.22%) and much less than Hong Kong (-12.74%) and China (-24.14%). Germany's DAX is down -9.52% for the month and in the US the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down -8.32%, -7.93% and -10.60%, respectively.

Today's first chart is a weekly one that tracks the ASX 200 and the US S&P 500 VIX index, and, despite the differing profile of volatility, I continue to believe that the 2011 bear market provides a sound comparison for the last 12 months. On a weekly closing basis, the 2011 peak to trough was 20.1%, 2015's was 18.1%. Elevated volatility in 2011 lasted about 6 months, and we're about 5 months into the current phase of high volatility, which really just projects aggressive selling and basically constitutes a bear market. For those with a particular emotional attachment to the GFC, take a further look back at the big blue mountain that represents lead-up to the GFC and the subsequent sell-off. Look at the shape and severity of the moves compared with the 'noisier' profile of the falls in 2015 - these two periods are not comparable.

Today's second chart shows the short-term bounce in the AUDUSD currency pair, which has settled to US$0.708 this morning after hitting highs above US$0.7120 last night. Japanese inflation figures will report at 10:30am today, with Euro-zone inflation being reported at 9pm tonight.


Source: Rivkin, Saxo Bank

To view the Rivkin economic calendar and Global Markets matrix, members can click here.

This article was written by Scott Schuberg, CEO of Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via info@rivkin.com.au or by phoning +612 8302 3600.

Complex product warning

This article contains information about foreign exchange contracts, which are considered complex financial products. Please click here to read ASIC's foreign exchange trading article before considering an investment in foreign exchange contracts. 

This article contains information about CFDs, which are considered complex financial products. Please click here to read ASIC's "Thinking of trading contracts for difference?" document before considering an investment in CFDs.
comments powered by Disqus

DISCLAIMER: Rivkin aims to provide clear and simple information to those visiting our website. If any part of this disclaimer does not make sense, please phone Rivkin and ask to speak with a member of our Dealing and Relationship Management Team. Rivkin provides general advice and dealing services on securities, derivatives and superannuation (SMSF). Rivkin also provide SMSF administration and accounting services. Rivkin does not provide advice that takes into account your, or anybody else's, investment objectives, financial situation or needs. We strongly suggest that you consult an independent, licenced financial advisor before acting upon any information contained on this website. Investing in and trading securities (such as shares listed on the ASX) and/or derivatives (such as Contracts for Difference or 'CFDs') carry financial risks. CFDs carry with them various additional risks that differ from more simple securities such as fully-paid company shares. Some of these risks include not owning the underlying instrument from which a price is being derived, settling trades 'over the counter' with a financial institution rather than on a stock exchange, and using leverage to gain access to trades that may have a higher face value than your initial deposit. This risk of leverage means that it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Our aim is to create more life choices for our clients, which means improving the wealth of clients throughout many market cycles by nurturing a relationship spanning many years. If you are not comfortable with your understanding of the risks involved before using a Rivkin product and service, please contact our office to seek further information or a Product Disclosure Statement, or make an appointment to sit with one of our friendly financial experts. It is in our interest for your Rivkin experience to be a rewarding and comfortable one. Rivkin is a trading name of Rivkin Securities ABN 87123290602, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 332 802.