Global equities & commodities lower, GBP higher as polls suggest remain vote leading in Brexit polls, ASX SPI200 future 25 points lower

European equity markets closed lower on Monday in what was a quiet night for economic data, with the only notable release the German IFO Business Climate (Apr) which was marginally lower than expected. The DAX30 index finished 0.76% lower, as did the FTSE100 (-0.78%), Euro Stoxx 50 (-0.75%) and CAC40 (-0.52%). The British Pound continues to show some signs of optimism highlighted on the chart below (1), reaching the highest levels in a month as polls suggest that “Bremain” vote is slightly ahead with 51% followed by 40% in the “Brexit” camp, leaving 9% undecided.

U.S. equities regained early losses to close marginally lower, the benchmark S&P500 index down 0.18% while the Nasdaq100 was unchanged at the close of trading. In political news over the weekend, Ted Cruz and John Kasich reached an alliance in order to deny Donald Trump the republican presidential nomination. The agreement is to not campaign in certain state primaries, mainly Indiana, in order to keep Trump short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination, leading to what would be a very interesting contested convention.

Commodities were also broadly lower on Monday, Iron Ore (-0.39%), Copper (-0.53%), Natural Gas (-3.60%), while Brent & WTI Crude Oil closed (-1.40%) and (-2.49%) respectively. Looking to precious metals, spot gold and spot silver closed 0.40% and 0.18% higher.

Looking to the local market, we can expect a weaker open this morning with ASX SPI200 futures down 25 points. Given the impulsive nature of the recent rally, it remains likely we will now see a period of consolidation before the next move.

Data Releases:

·         US Durable Goods Orders (Mar) 10:30pm AEST

·         US Markit Services & Composite PMI (Apr) 11:45pm AEST

·         US Consumer Confidence (Apr) 12:00am AEST


Source: Rivkin, Bloomberg, Updata

To view the Rivkin economic calendar and Global Markets matrix, members can click here.

This article was written by James Woods - Global Investment Analyst, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via info@rivkin.com.au or by phoning +612 8302 3600.

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